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AFK Investor Coach
Wednesday, March 26, 2008
Tuesday, March 18, 2008
When Is The Best Time To Be Prudent?
Thursday, March 13, 2008
Will it ever end?
Wednesday, March 12, 2008
Should I Get Out?
Three Factor Model
Tuesday, March 4, 2008
Modern Portfolio Theory
Monday, March 3, 2008
Free Market Portfolio Theory
There is an investment approach backed by academic and Nobel Prize winning research called Free Market Portfolio Theory. Free Market Portfolio Theory is comprised of three academic and scientific components:
- The Efficient Market Hypothesis
- Modern Portfolio Theory
- The Three Factor Model
This article will focus on the first component The Efficient Market Hypothesis. Future articles will address Modern Portfolio Theory and The Three Factor Model.
The Efficient Market Hypothesis is based on the work of economists Adam Smith, who wrote Wealth of Nations in 1776 and is the backbone of our free enterprise system today, F.A. Hayek and Eugene Fama. Fama published a groundbreaking work in 1965 in the Financial Analysts Journal aptly named “A Random Walk in Stock Market Prices.” Borrowing from the work of Adam Smith and F.A. Hayek, Dr. Fama posited that the market prices goods and services appropriately and that prices are random and unpredictable. Further, since all knowable information is already in the current price, it is unlikely for someone to consistently find undervalued or overpriced securities. What this tells us is that it is not possible for anyone to consistently predict where prices will go. Since it is difficult to predict market movements and capture additional returns unrelated to risk. Therefore it is prudent to build portfolios that capture the returns of all markets including all global markets.
When we utilize this concept we take out the speculation from investing. Stocking picking, market timing and track record investing all are based on the premise that there is someone who can predict the future. Unfortunately there are two groups of individuals when it comes to investing, those who don’t know where the market is going and those who don’t know they don’t know where the market is going. A great example of this is the second richest person in America and a very successful investor, Warren Buffet. While the market was earning 20, 30 or 40% per year during the 1990’s Mr. Buffet was earning far less, in fact with a 15% loss in 1999. Had Mr. Buffet known where the market was going he would owned only the right ‘things’. If anyone knew where the market was going why would they tell you? We can be successful in investing by following a disciplined, long term approach. To be successful, often requires the assistance of an investor coach. It is difficult for us as individuals to ignore the media, our friends, associates and family when the markets are going against us. On our own we often make trades that are not in our own best interests.
Future articles will address Modern Portfolio Theory and The Three Factor Model.
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Previous Posts
- Words of Wisdom
- Free Markets!!
- Fee Disclosure in your 401k Plan
- The System
- Finally
- Stay Invested and Win.
- Oracle of Omaha
- Congratulations!
- Should I Wait Until This Is All Over?
- Who Wins.
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